I've been wondering about this "Peak Oil" thing.

I'm not worried so much about oil getting more expensive, or running out because frankly, there's enough plastic, rubber, latex, whatever in the world and it's all perfectly recyclable. When it comes to fuel oil, well, we'll just have to pull our fingers out and use other things, won't we - like water, or oxygen or sunlight. Damn sight cheaper it will be too.

No, the thing that grabbed me as something to wonder about is the more basic question of where the oil comes from. Y'see, as far as I know, oil comes from vast underground lakes. Holes deep underground. But I wasn't sure how big these holes actually were.

So I had a quick look around and discovered some interesting figures.

The Kashagan field in Kazakhstan has a capacity of 35 billion barrels, and an estimated size of 480 square miles.

The largest oil field in the world is Saudi Arabia's "Gharwar" field, which has something like 80 billion barrels left, which means that after just over 50 years of production, there is still an area approaching 1000 square miles full of oil sitting underneath Saudi. Comparable size fields lie in Kuwait, Chile and China.

So, two miles underneath all of these places are rapidly emptying holes which range from areas the size of Phoenix, Arizona to areas perhaps four times larger. These holes were previously filled with thick black liquid under enough pressure to send that liquid spouting high into the air when pierced.

So it occurs to me to wonder what's happening to those holes, and what effect would it have on the surface if a 2000 square mile hole suddenly collapsed two miles underground?

According to this report from Aljazeera.net, if you extract oil too fast, the hole does indeed collapse. Also, to reinvigorate an ageing oil field, you start injecting the hole with vast amounts of water.

Interestingly, getting back to the subject of Peak Oil, Gharwar field is being water-injected now, and they're currently pumping it back out at a rate of 35-50% a day.

To clarify, half of the liquid pumped out of the largest oil field in the world is water that they pump in to stop the field from collapsing.

According to this report on an investigation into the "Lost Hills" field in California, the land is subsiding by 1.5 inches per month. Sinking. An inch and a half a month. That's just a field a mile across and three miles wide. So let's think about this. The ground at the northern end of a three square mile hole in the ground is sinking by something like ten meters a decade. What on earth is happening to Saudi Arabia? And with the inevitable rise in sea levels, and the inevitable subsidence as a result of oil extraction, won't that see most of Arabia under water at some point over the next hundred years or so? Just wondering, like.

While I'm at it,what's the problem with oil running out anyway? Like I said at the opening of this little diatribe, we can recycle plenty of the currently existing materials and replace fuel oil with cleaner alternatives.

This doesn't seem to occur to some, though. This article outlines the problem as the US economy sees it:

Without oil, the American economy would collapse. Oil is promoted as the vital lubricant of capitalism. Without oil, mobility, open hospitals, moving trucks and trains end. Over 25,000 airplanes take off and land daily at the airports. Millions of air-conditioners drive the American energy need to dizzy heights. On average, every food in North America travels 1300 miles before it lands on the plate of the consumer. More than 850 million cars or utility vehicles are on the road worldwide. As long as there is enough oil worldwide, this wastefulness-mania does not seem to be a problem...

So what happens when there's not enough oil? How do we tackle the wastefulness?

Well let me see...the technology already exists - in its infancy and woefully underfunded - which uses a hydrogen fuel cell to power electric car engines. The byproduct of this technology? Carcinogens and greenhouse gases? Nope, water. Pure, drinkable water. Fuel cell technology is being adapted to power domestic appliances. I've heard that there's a laptop battery in production which could last hours longer then the pitiful and annoying two hours or so that you get these days.

Domestic energy production is a relatively simple issue, with more renewable sources being brought online daily.

So how do we tackle the global need for air travel? The vast majority of air travel is freight or business related. Of course, there's no quick fixes, and there's time when you just need to be there but it does occur to me that more localised production or shipping by cleaner road or rail routes would cut down most unnecessary air freight inland. And with the exponential speeding up of the internet, and with mobile technology also getting better by the minute, why oh why can't more business be done at a distance?

But the best solution would surely be a replacement for aviation fuel. In that area, there have already been flights of fuel cell-powered aircraft, and there are hints that the US military is working on a fuel-efficient hypersonic technology known as Pulsed Detonation Engines. Nothing, however is currently cutting the mustard. One thing is plain though - they've got about 50 years to come up with a viable replacement.

So what conclusions have I drawn from my little investigation this morning?

1) We're making vast tracts of empty space deep underground, which means that the ground above these holes is subsiding.

2) We have reached, breached and passed the point of Peak Oil.

3) While the world is not yet prepared for oil running out, we could be. Maybe once it's acknowledged, then investment and research into different fuel sources will have to be made. Maybe we won't see these sources truly online, or at least cheap during our lifetime but it will happen and the world will be a better place for it.

4) The end of oil means the end of the world order as we know it, but as the world order as we know it is rotten, corrupt and mostly based on the premise that those who are already rich inherently deserve to be richer and everyone else can go fuck themselves, I say "Bring it on!".

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Have a bibliography:
Indymedia: "E-Day: The Collapse of the Oil Lie"
Alexander's Gas & Oil connection: Radar images help scientists understand oil field collapse
G R Morton: Trouble in the World's Largest Oil Field
Kitco Bullion Dealers: GOLD & OIL

Aljazeera: Bank says Saudi's top field in decline
David B Ottaway: Vast Caspian Oil Field Found